When Media Shouts Doom, Watch Applications And Act

Headlines keep screaming doom, but the data tells a different story. We sit down with Bill Bodner, Founder and CRO at Tabrasa, to unpack why last year was quietly strong for mortgages, how the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury snapped back toward historical norms, and what that means for pricing, locks, and strategy right now. The big idea: measure behavior, not vibes. Applications and pending home sales say borrowers are in motion, even as sentiment surveys stay gloomy.

We dig into housing affordability and the growing menu of policy levers being floated, from tax code nudges that unlock down payments to targeted support for mortgage-backed securities. While not every proposal is a winner, the direction is clear and supportive. Add in the potential boost from a historically significant tax refund and steady business investment, and you’ve got real tailwinds that credit unions can turn into sustainable growth. We also get practical about risk: global bond markets can still spark volatility, but the U.S. remains comparatively strong. With the mortgage-to-Treasury spread back near its long-term range, the 10-year is once again a reliable north star for rate direction.

The playbook is straightforward and urgent. Stop waiting for the media to turn positive. Double down on member outreach now, educate borrowers on how spreads and the 10-year drive rates, and use timely data to guide decisions. Prioritize purchase-readiness and database marketing while capturing a major HELOC opportunity fueled by record home equity. Expect fits and starts in a generally declining rate environment, and be ready to move when the metrics move. If you’re looking for a grounded, actionable read on where mortgages are headed and how credit unions can win, this conversation delivers.

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